Home / NBA Projections NBA / 76ers @ Mavericks PHI @ DAL

PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

22-44  |  Road

130
FINAL
Sun, Mar 16 • 1:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

33-35  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
76ERS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
76ERS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Dallas)
76ersPHI (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

76ers Cover

44.3%

Mavericks Cover

55.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

PHI By 1-7 points

23.7%

PHI By 8-14 points

13.0%

DAL By 1-7 points

26.5%

DAL By 8-14 points

17.6%

AI Model Projected Score
108
PHILADELPHIA
109.44
DALLAS
Simulated Score
118
PHILADELPHIA
115
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 76ers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim 76ers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 217.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 1, 2026 PHI @ DAL 123 - 108
Dec 20, 2025 DAL @ PHI 114 - 121
Mar 16, 2025 PHI @ DAL 130 - 125
Feb 4, 2025 DAL @ PHI 116 - 118
Mar 3, 2024 PHI @ DAL 120 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +12.2% more
Dallas: 23.1 vs Philadelphia: 20.6
Free Throw % (L5) +6.5%
Dallas: 81.1% vs Philadelphia: 74.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.5%
Dallas: 36.5% vs Philadelphia: 30.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Dallas: 47.4% vs Philadelphia: 45.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 108.0 130
DAL Score 109.4 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 30.0 29.4 / 38.9
Assists 23.1 / 20.6 26.0 / 21.0
Blocks 3.4 / 7.5 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 45.3 52.9 / 52.2
Free Throw % 81.1 / 74.6 76.7 / 83.3
Rebounding 35.1 / 40.9 45.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.3 / 9.1 4.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 13.4 15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2% Total +/-: +1.4
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
PHI
DAL
PHI
ML
62% 63-39
63% 69-40
54% 44-37
48% 45-48
ATS
67% 68-34
65% 71-38
54% 44-37
48% 45-48
TTL
59% 60-41-1
55% 60-49
100% 81-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 1 hour, 15 minutes ago
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
yahoo 7 hours, 6 minutes ago
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…
yahoo 7 hours, 25 minutes ago
Phillies' 2027 Forecast: Four Farmhands Ready to Step Up
si 13 hours, 37 minutes ago
Mike Breen Issues Apology After LeBron James Shoots Down Embiid …
cbssports 1 day, 1 hour ago