DALLAS
STARSDAL
42-21-2 | Road
3
COLORADO
AVALANCHECOL
40-24-3 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Scott Wedgewood
#41 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 3.96 | 0.886 | -- |
| Scott Wedgewood | None-None | 2.97 | 0.864 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.96
GAA
Ldr 2.97
0.886 Ldr
Save %
0.864
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
100%
AVALANCHE
0%
STARS
--
AVALANCHE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around COL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
DAL By 1 goal
15.0%
DAL By 2-3 goals
13.6%
COL By 1 goal
19.1%
COL By 2-3 goals
24.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
3.44
DALLAS
Colorado
3.94
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Colorado
4
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Avalanche
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Avalanche
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Avalanche (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.5
D
Sim
Avalanche (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 4, 2026
COL @ DAL
2 - 0
Mar 18, 2026
DAL @ COL
2 - 1
Mar 6, 2026
COL @ DAL
5 - 4
Oct 11, 2025
DAL @ COL
5 - 4
Oct 4, 2025
COL @ DAL
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+25.5% more
Colorado: 17.6
vs
Dallas: 14.1
Shots on Goal (L5)
+18.3% more
Colorado: 28.0
vs
Dallas: 23.7
Takeaways (L5)
+14.5% more
Colorado: 4.8
vs
Dallas: 4.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+1.9%
Colorado: 52.1%
vs
Dallas: 50.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
3.4
3
COL Score
3.9
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.1 / 13.2
13.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
52.1 / 50.2
56.4 / 43.6
Hits
17.6 / 14.1
28.0 / 26.0
Power Play %
16.0 / 18.9
20.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
28.0 / 23.7
35.0 / 22.0
Takeaways
4.8 / 4.2
8.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
DAL
COL
DAL
ML
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
ATS
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
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