MIAMI
HEATMIA
29-37 | Road
91
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
42-25 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
HEAT
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
26.5%
MIA By 8-14 points
17.6%
MEM By 1-7 points
23.8%
MEM By 8-14 points
13.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
112.77
MIAMI
Memphis
111.38
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Miami
112
MIAMI
Memphis
118
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
MEM @ MIA
120 - 136
Oct 24, 2025
MIA @ MEM
146 - 114
Apr 3, 2025
MEM @ MIA
110 - 108
Mar 15, 2025
MIA @ MEM
91 - 125
Oct 18, 2024
MIA @ MEM
114 - 109
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.5%
Miami: 36.5%
vs
Memphis: 34.9%
Blocks (L5)
+48.6% more
Memphis: 5.2
vs
Miami: 3.5
Rebounding (L5)
+17.1% more
Memphis: 45.0
vs
Miami: 38.5
Steals (L5)
+14.2% more
Memphis: 11.0
vs
Miami: 9.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
112.8
91
MEM Score
111.4
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.9 / 36.5
38.7 / 24.3
Assists
26.7 / 23.8
31.0 / 24.0
Blocks
5.2 / 3.5
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 46.0
55.4 / 39.8
Free Throw %
80.2 / 68.9
91.7 / 80.0
Rebounding
45.0 / 38.5
51.0 / 37.0
Steals
11.0 / 9.6
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 14.1
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
MIA
MEM
MIA
ML
57%
59-44
48%
46-50
50%
41-41
59%
48-34
ATS
63%
65-38
51%
49-47
50%
41-41
59%
48-34
TTL
70%
71-31-1
59%
57-39
100%
82-0
100%
82-0
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