INDIANA
PACERSIND
36-28 | Road
112
PHILADELPHIA
76ERSPHI
22-43 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
76ERS
100%
PACERS
--
76ERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.2
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.2 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -4.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
27.4%
IND By 8-14 points
21.9%
PHI By 1-7 points
19.8%
PHI By 8-14 points
9.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
115.21
INDIANA
Philadelphia
111.03
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Indiana
112
INDIANA
Philadelphia
118
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
76ers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.2
D
Sim
76ers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 226.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
PHI @ IND
105 - 94
Feb 24, 2026
PHI @ IND
135 - 114
Jan 19, 2026
IND @ PHI
104 - 113
Dec 12, 2025
IND @ PHI
105 - 115
Mar 14, 2025
IND @ PHI
112 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+19.2% more
Indiana: 30.1
vs
Philadelphia: 24.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Indiana: 33.0%
vs
Philadelphia: 30.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Indiana: 47.2%
vs
Philadelphia: 45.4%
Blocks (L5)
+59.3% more
Philadelphia: 6.8
vs
Indiana: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
115.2
112
PHI Score
111.0
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.5 / 33.0
28.9 / 28.6
Assists
24.3 / 30.1
13.0 / 31.0
Blocks
6.8 / 4.3
9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 47.2
45.1 / 49.4
Free Throw %
77.8 / 79.2
68.2 / 77.8
Rebounding
39.9 / 38.7
43.0 / 45.0
Steals
10.1 / 10.8
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 11.6
16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
PHI
Advantage
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
PHI
Advantage
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
IND
PHI
IND
ML
63%
69-40
48%
47-50
48%
45-48
54%
45-38
ATS
65%
71-38
59%
57-40
48%
45-48
54%
45-38
TTL
55%
60-49
54%
52-45
100%
93-0
100%
83-0
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