BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
47-19 | Road
103
MIAMI
HEATMIA
29-36 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
HEAT
100%
CELTICS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.8
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.8 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -9.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-7 points
23.3%
BOS By 8-14 points
27.2%
MIA By 1-7 points
10.9%
MIA By 8-14 points
3.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
117.54
BOSTON
Miami
107.72
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Boston
112
BOSTON
Miami
108
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.8
D
Sim
Celtics (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
BOS @ MIA
147 - 129
Feb 6, 2026
MIA @ BOS
96 - 98
Jan 15, 2026
BOS @ MIA
119 - 114
Dec 19, 2025
MIA @ BOS
116 - 129
Apr 2, 2025
MIA @ BOS
124 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+45.5% more
Boston: 6.0
vs
Miami: 3.3
Rebounding (L5)
+12.0% more
Boston: 44.0
vs
Miami: 38.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.9%
Boston: 83.9%
vs
Miami: 74.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
117.5
103
MIA Score
107.7
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 35.2
38.2 / 38.0
Assists
26.7 / 26.0
18.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.3 / 6.0
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 45.4
45.3 / 43.4
Free Throw %
74.0 / 83.9
58.8 / 92.3
Rebounding
38.7 / 44.0
38.0 / 41.0
Steals
9.4 / 8.8
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 11.4
18.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
BOS
MIA
BOS
ML
48%
46-50
57%
61-46
59%
48-34
53%
47-41
ATS
51%
49-47
59%
61-43-3
59%
48-34
53%
47-41
TTL
59%
57-39
56%
60-47
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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