Home / NBA Projections NBA / Cavaliers @ Grizzlies CLE @ MEM

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

55-10  |  Road

133
FINAL
Fri, Mar 14 • 8:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

42-24  |  Home

124
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
📊
GRIZZLIES
100%
CAVALIERS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.6
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.6 points (Cleveland)
CavaliersCLE (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

83.2%

Grizzlies Cover

16.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE -9.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-7 points

23.5%

CLE By 8-14 points

27.1%

MEM By 1-7 points

11.2%

MEM By 8-14 points

3.6%

AI Model Projected Score
125.38
CLEVELAND
115.76
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
118
CLEVELAND
124
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.6
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 241.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 6, 2026 CLE @ MEM 142 - 126
Nov 15, 2025 MEM @ CLE 100 - 108
Mar 14, 2025 CLE @ MEM 133 - 124
Feb 23, 2025 MEM @ CLE 123 - 129
Apr 10, 2024 MEM @ CLE 98 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +9.1% more
Cleveland: 14.0 vs Memphis: 12.7
Free Throw % (L5) +2.0%
Cleveland: 81.9% vs Memphis: 79.9%
Blocks (L5) +76.6% more
Memphis: 6.3 vs Cleveland: 3.6
Steals (L5) +40.2% more
Memphis: 11.0 vs Cleveland: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 125.4 133
MEM Score 115.8 124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 33.2 30.6 / 37.3
Assists 27.6 / 23.4 25.0 / 32.0
Blocks 6.3 / 3.6 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 44.8 49.5 / 50.0
Free Throw % 79.9 / 81.9 81.0 / 78.8
Rebounding 45.1 / 46.9 45.0 / 43.0
Steals 11.0 / 7.8 11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 14.0 14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
CLE
MEM
CLE
ML
57% 59-44
60% 69-46
50% 41-41
56% 55-44
ATS
63% 65-38
67% 75-37-3
50% 41-41
56% 55-44
TTL
70% 71-31-1
59% 68-47
100% 82-0
100% 99-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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