SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
33-32 | Road
106
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
30-36 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
SUNS
100%
KINGS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
SAC By 1-7 points
27.3%
SAC By 8-14 points
20.4%
PHX By 1-7 points
21.4%
PHX By 8-14 points
10.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento
116.86
SACRAMENTO
Phoenix
113.69
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Sacramento
118
SACRAMENTO
Phoenix
122
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Kings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Kings (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.2
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
PHX @ SAC
114 - 103
Jan 2, 2026
SAC @ PHX
102 - 129
Nov 26, 2025
PHX @ SAC
112 - 100
Oct 22, 2025
SAC @ PHX
116 - 120
Apr 13, 2025
PHX @ SAC
98 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+16.2% more
Sacramento: 6.9
vs
Phoenix: 5.8
Blocks (L5)
+28.1% more
Phoenix: 4.8
vs
Sacramento: 3.8
Assists (L5)
+15.8% more
Phoenix: 28.5
vs
Sacramento: 24.6
Turnovers (L5)
+14.0% more
Phoenix: 15.4
vs
Sacramento: 13.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
116.9
106
PHX Score
113.7
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.9 / 35.6
55.8 / 25.0
Assists
28.5 / 24.6
33.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.8 / 3.8
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
52.0 / 46.5
51.9 / 49.4
Free Throw %
80.7 / 78.7
84.2 / 90.0
Rebounding
41.9 / 39.1
34.0 / 40.0
Steals
5.8 / 6.9
12.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
15.4 / 13.5
14.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
SAC
PHX
SAC
ML
57%
60-45
55%
55-45
51%
45-43
61%
50-32
ATS
58%
59-43-3
54%
52-45-3
51%
45-43
61%
50-32
TTL
59%
61-42-2
58%
57-42-1
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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