DALLAS
STARSDAL
42-20-2 | Road
1
WINNIPEG
JETSWPG
45-17-4 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Connor Hellebuyck
#37 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 4.00 | 0.818 | -- |
| Connor Hellebuyck | None-None | 1.00 | 0.960 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.00
GAA
Ldr 1.00
0.818
Save %
Ldr 0.960
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
100%
JETS
0%
STARS
--
JETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
WINNIPEG
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Winnipeg)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WPG -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WPG)
DAL By 1 goal
17.0%
DAL By 2-3 goals
17.6%
WPG By 1 goal
17.9%
WPG By 2-3 goals
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
3.57
DALLAS
Winnipeg
3.67
WINNIPEG
Simulated Score
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Winnipeg
2
WINNIPEG
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Jets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stars
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Jets (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim
Stars (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
WPG @ DAL
0 - 3
Feb 2, 2026
WPG @ DAL
3 - 4
Dec 9, 2025
DAL @ WPG
4 - 3
Oct 9, 2025
DAL @ WPG
5 - 4
May 17, 2025
WPG @ DAL
1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+58.6% more
Winnipeg: 20.0
vs
Dallas: 12.6
Blocked Shots (L5)
+23.1% more
Winnipeg: 18.2
vs
Dallas: 14.8
Shots on Goal (L5)
+15.1% more
Winnipeg: 26.5
vs
Dallas: 23.0
Power Play % (L5)
+2.1%
Winnipeg: 30.6%
vs
Dallas: 28.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
3.6
1
WPG Score
3.7
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.2 / 14.8
17.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
49.6 / 49.4
48.2 / 51.8
Hits
20.0 / 12.6
35.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
3055.0 / 2841.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.5 / 23.0
22.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
3.6 / 4.8
7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WPG
DAL
WPG
DAL
ML
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
ATS
25%
1-3
0%
0-3
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
TTL
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
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