CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
16-48 | Road
110
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
31-34 | Home
123
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
HAWKS
0%
HORNETS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.3
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.3 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -6.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
CHA By 1-7 points
16.5%
CHA By 8-14 points
6.5%
ATL By 1-7 points
26.7%
ATL By 8-14 points
24.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
106.17
CHARLOTTE
Atlanta
112.46
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Charlotte
118
CHARLOTTE
Atlanta
124
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.3
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 218.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
ATL @ CHA
107 - 110
Feb 7, 2026
CHA @ ATL
126 - 119
Dec 18, 2025
ATL @ CHA
126 - 133
Nov 23, 2025
CHA @ ATL
110 - 113
Mar 18, 2025
ATL @ CHA
134 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+57.5% more
Atlanta: 6.4
vs
Charlotte: 4.1
Assists (L5)
+19.1% more
Atlanta: 30.5
vs
Charlotte: 25.6
Turnovers (L5)
+16.6% more
Atlanta: 14.3
vs
Charlotte: 12.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.4%
Atlanta: 50.9%
vs
Charlotte: 42.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
106.2
110
ATL Score
112.5
123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.8 / 29.2
38.9 / 40.0
Assists
30.5 / 25.6
26.0 / 29.0
Blocks
6.4 / 4.1
6.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
50.9 / 42.4
42.0 / 45.5
Free Throw %
80.0 / 84.4
89.7 / 88.9
Rebounding
45.5 / 44.3
43.0 / 47.0
Steals
7.2 / 6.8
13.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
14.3 / 12.2
14.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CHA
ATL
CHA
ML
50%
52-52
61%
60-39
55%
48-40
48%
40-44
ATS
53%
55-48-1
60%
59-40
55%
48-40
48%
40-44
TTL
53%
55-48-1
58%
57-42
100%
88-0
100%
84-0
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