Home / NBA Projections NBA / 76ers @ Raptors PHI @ TOR

PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

22-42  |  Road

105
FINAL
Wed, Mar 12 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

22-43  |  Home

118
AI Model Win Probability
76ERS
0%
📊
RAPTORS
100%
76ERS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (Philadelphia)
76ersPHI (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

76ers Cover

63.4%

Raptors Cover

36.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHI -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-7 points

27.3%

PHI By 8-14 points

20.8%

TOR By 1-7 points

21.0%

TOR By 8-14 points

10.1%

AI Model Projected Score
112.04
PHILADELPHIA
108.62
TORONTO
Simulated Score
118
PHILADELPHIA
112
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI 76ers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 76ers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI 76ers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.4
D
Sim 76ers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 220.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 12, 2026 PHI @ TOR 115 - 102
Jan 11, 2026 PHI @ TOR 115 - 116
Nov 19, 2025 TOR @ PHI 121 - 112
Nov 8, 2025 TOR @ PHI 120 - 130
Mar 30, 2025 TOR @ PHI 127 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +13.7% more
Philadelphia: 8.7 vs Toronto: 7.5
Blocks (L5) +12.3% more
Philadelphia: 4.7 vs Toronto: 4.1
Free Throw % (L5) +5.8%
Philadelphia: 80.3% vs Toronto: 74.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.0%
Philadelphia: 46.8% vs Toronto: 41.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 112.0 105
TOR Score 108.6 118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 35.8 40.0 / 20.0
Assists 25.8 / 27.0 33.0 / 19.0
Blocks 4.1 / 4.7 5.0 / 11.0
Field Goal % 41.8 / 46.8 44.0 / 42.7
Free Throw % 74.5 / 80.3 77.8 / 72.7
Rebounding 55.7 / 39.8 59.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.5 / 8.7 7.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 13.7 22.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2% Total +/-: +1.4
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
PHI
TOR
PHI
ML
55% 57-47
63% 69-40
55% 48-39
48% 45-48
ATS
61% 62-40-2
65% 71-38
55% 48-39
48% 45-48
TTL
60% 62-42
55% 60-49
100% 87-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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