PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
30-35 | Road
104
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
40-25 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
SUNS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
PHX By 1-7 points
23.7%
PHX By 8-14 points
13.0%
HOU By 1-7 points
26.5%
HOU By 8-14 points
17.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
114.4
PHOENIX
Houston
115.84
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Phoenix
118
PHOENIX
Houston
105
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim
Suns (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 7, 2026
HOU @ PHX
119 - 105
Jan 5, 2026
PHX @ HOU
97 - 100
Dec 5, 2025
PHX @ HOU
98 - 117
Nov 24, 2025
HOU @ PHX
114 - 92
Mar 30, 2025
HOU @ PHX
148 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+48.0% more
Houston: 4.8
vs
Phoenix: 3.3
Steals (L5)
+28.9% more
Houston: 6.7
vs
Phoenix: 5.2
Rebounding (L5)
+20.0% more
Houston: 53.2
vs
Phoenix: 44.3
Turnovers (L5)
+12.4% more
Houston: 16.4
vs
Phoenix: 14.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
114.4
104
HOU Score
115.8
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.1 / 43.6
31.6 / 35.7
Assists
25.0 / 31.8
25.0 / 22.0
Blocks
4.8 / 3.3
3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 51.3
45.5 / 53.4
Free Throw %
66.8 / 81.0
76.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
53.2 / 44.3
38.0 / 37.0
Steals
6.7 / 5.2
11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
16.4 / 14.6
9.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
PHX
HOU
PHX
ML
61%
69-44
57%
60-45
59%
51-35
51%
45-43
ATS
62%
70-43
58%
59-43-3
59%
51-35
51%
45-43
TTL
51%
58-55
59%
61-42-2
100%
86-0
100%
88-0
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