WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
42-14-8 | Road
7
ANAHEIM
DUCKSANA
28-28-7 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Lukas Dostal
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 4.00 | 0.862 | -- |
| Lukas Dostal | None-None | 6.14 | 0.857 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.00 Ldr
GAA
6.14
0.862 Ldr
Save %
0.857
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
DUCKS
100%
CAPITALS
--
DUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1 goal
19.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
28.1%
ANA By 1 goal
12.9%
ANA By 2-3 goals
10.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.98
WASHINGTON
Anaheim
3.12
ANAHEIM
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Anaheim
2
ANAHEIM
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.9
D
Sim
Capitals (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 5, 2026
ANA @ WSH
4 - 7
Dec 5, 2025
WSH @ ANA
3 - 4
Mar 11, 2025
WSH @ ANA
7 - 4
Jan 14, 2025
ANA @ WSH
0 - 3
Jan 16, 2024
ANA @ WSH
0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+15.7% more
Washington: 17.6
vs
Anaheim: 14.8
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.9%
Washington: 51.0%
vs
Anaheim: 48.0%
Hits (L5)
+39.5% more
Anaheim: 24.2
vs
Washington: 17.4
Power Play % (L5)
+13.4%
Anaheim: 23.8%
vs
Washington: 10.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.0
7
ANA Score
3.1
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.8 / 17.6
18.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
48.0 / 51.0
50.0 / 50.0
Hits
24.2 / 17.4
22.0 / 9.0
Power Play %
2377.0 / 1039.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
25.0 / 27.0
29.0 / 43.0
Takeaways
3.6 / 3.5
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ANA
WSH
ANA
WSH
ML
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
TTL
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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