CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
15-48 | Road
105
MIAMI
HEATMIA
29-34 | Home
102
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
HEAT
0%
HORNETS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
208.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.3
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.3 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -9.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
CHA By 1-7 points
11.6%
CHA By 8-14 points
3.8%
MIA By 1-7 points
23.9%
MIA By 8-14 points
27.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
99.74
CHARLOTTE
Miami
109.08
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Charlotte
108
CHARLOTTE
Miami
115
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.3
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 208.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 14, 2026
MIA @ CHA
126 - 127
Mar 17, 2026
MIA @ CHA
106 - 136
Mar 6, 2026
MIA @ CHA
128 - 120
Nov 7, 2025
CHA @ MIA
108 - 126
Oct 28, 2025
CHA @ MIA
117 - 144
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+38.6% more
Miami: 7.2
vs
Charlotte: 5.2
Blocks (L5)
+16.3% more
Miami: 3.6
vs
Charlotte: 3.1
Assists (L5)
+9.7% more
Miami: 27.9
vs
Charlotte: 25.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
Miami: 35.6%
vs
Charlotte: 31.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
99.7
105
MIA Score
109.1
102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 31.3
32.3 / 25.0
Assists
27.9 / 25.4
24.0 / 26.0
Blocks
3.6 / 3.1
3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 42.7
45.9 / 41.9
Free Throw %
77.9 / 78.7
70.0 / 95.7
Rebounding
42.4 / 48.5
46.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.2 / 5.2
7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 13.4
16.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CHA
MIA
CHA
ML
48%
46-50
61%
60-39
59%
48-34
48%
40-44
ATS
51%
49-47
60%
59-40
59%
48-34
48%
40-44
TTL
59%
57-39
58%
57-42
100%
82-0
100%
84-0
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