Home / NBA Projections NBA / Magic @ Rockets ORL @ HOU

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

30-35  |  Road

84
FINAL
Mon, Mar 10 • 8:00 PM ET
Toyota Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

39-25  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
0%
📊
ROCKETS
100%
MAGIC --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Orlando)
MagicORL (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Magic Cover

60.0%

Rockets Cover

40.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ORL -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)

ORL By 1-7 points

27.1%

ORL By 8-14 points

19.4%

HOU By 1-7 points

22.3%

HOU By 8-14 points

11.4%

AI Model Projected Score
112.8
ORLANDO
110.27
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
118
ORLANDO
115
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Magic Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Magic Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Magic (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.5
D
Sim Magic (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 223.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 HOU @ ORL 113 - 108
Nov 16, 2025 ORL @ HOU 113 - 117
Mar 19, 2025 HOU @ ORL 116 - 108
Mar 10, 2025 ORL @ HOU 84 - 97
Apr 9, 2024 ORL @ HOU 106 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +10.7%
Orlando: 80.3% vs Houston: 69.7%
Rebounding (L5) +33.9% more
Houston: 48.3 vs Orlando: 36.1
Assists (L5) +22.9% more
Houston: 27.4 vs Orlando: 22.3
Turnovers (L5) +17.9% more
Houston: 14.6 vs Orlando: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORL Score 112.8 84
HOU Score 110.3 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.0 / 34.2 37.2 / 25.0
Assists 27.4 / 22.3 20.0 / 15.0
Blocks 5.2 / 5.2 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 50.7 / 47.7 39.3 / 32.6
Free Throw % 69.7 / 80.3 61.1 / 83.3
Rebounding 48.3 / 36.1 63.0 / 42.0
Steals 8.0 / 7.5 4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.6 / 12.4 20.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL Advantage
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ORL
HOU
ORL
ML
61% 69-44
61% 65-42
59% 51-35
56% 51-40
ATS
62% 70-43
64% 68-38-1
59% 51-35
56% 51-40
TTL
51% 58-55
57% 61-46
100% 86-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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