INDIANA
PACERSIND
35-27 | Road
103
CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
26-38 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
BULLS
100%
PACERS
--
BULLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
26.9%
IND By 8-14 points
18.8%
CHI By 1-7 points
22.8%
CHI By 8-14 points
11.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
116.75
INDIANA
Chicago
114.58
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Indiana
118
INDIANA
Chicago
115
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.2
D
Sim
Pacers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
IND @ CHI
145 - 126
Jan 28, 2026
CHI @ IND
110 - 113
Dec 5, 2025
IND @ CHI
120 - 105
Nov 29, 2025
CHI @ IND
101 - 103
Mar 10, 2025
IND @ CHI
103 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+27.8% more
Indiana: 9.0
vs
Chicago: 6.5
Assists (L5)
+8.3% more
Indiana: 30.3
vs
Chicago: 27.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
Indiana: 36.7%
vs
Chicago: 30.8%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.1%
Indiana: 85.6%
vs
Chicago: 81.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
116.8
103
CHI Score
114.6
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.8 / 36.7
36.4 / 25.0
Assists
27.8 / 30.3
30.0 / 30.0
Blocks
4.9 / 5.4
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 48.5
50.0 / 39.6
Free Throw %
81.5 / 85.6
78.6 / 68.4
Rebounding
47.9 / 39.0
56.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.5 / 9.0
4.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 13.6
18.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CHI
Advantage
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CHI
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
IND
CHI
IND
ML
56%
54-42
48%
47-50
57%
46-35
54%
45-38
ATS
65%
62-33-1
59%
57-40
57%
46-35
54%
45-38
TTL
58%
56-40
54%
52-45
100%
81-0
100%
83-0
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