Home / NBA Projections NBA / Suns @ Mavericks PHX @ DAL

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

29-34  |  Road

125
FINAL
Sun, Mar 9 • 3:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

32-32  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
SUNS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Dallas)
SunsPHX (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Suns Cover

48.6%

Mavericks Cover

51.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

PHX By 1-7 points

25.0%

PHX By 8-14 points

14.7%

DAL By 1-7 points

25.7%

DAL By 8-14 points

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
109.23
PHOENIX
109.59
DALLAS
Simulated Score
118
PHOENIX
112
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.4
D
Sim Suns (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 218.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 8, 2026 DAL @ PHX 107 - 112
Feb 10, 2026 DAL @ PHX 111 - 120
Nov 12, 2025 PHX @ DAL 123 - 114
Mar 9, 2025 PHX @ DAL 125 - 116
Dec 27, 2024 DAL @ PHX 98 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +62.5% more
Dallas: 8.4 vs Phoenix: 5.2
Blocks (L5) +20.4% more
Dallas: 4.6 vs Phoenix: 3.8
Assists (L5) +18.1% more
Phoenix: 31.8 vs Dallas: 26.1
Turnovers (L5) +17.4% more
Phoenix: 14.3 vs Dallas: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHX Score 109.2 125
DAL Score 109.6 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.5 / 40.7 40.5 / 35.7
Assists 26.1 / 31.8 29.0 / 33.0
Blocks 4.6 / 3.8 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 52.1 48.9 / 58.3
Free Throw % 75.8 / 80.6 81.3 / 94.4
Rebounding 39.2 / 42.2 32.0 / 46.0
Steals 8.4 / 5.2 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 14.3 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
PHX
DAL
PHX
ML
62% 63-39
57% 60-45
54% 44-37
51% 45-43
ATS
67% 68-34
58% 59-43-3
54% 44-37
51% 45-43
TTL
59% 60-41-1
59% 61-42-2
100% 81-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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