PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
24-31-10 | Road
3
MINNESOTA
WILDMIN
36-23-4 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Justin Brazeau
#16 | Right Wing@
GOALTENDER
Marc-Andre Fleury
#29 | G| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Brazeau | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Marc-Andre Fleury | None-None | 2.08 | 0.905 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.08
--
Save %
0.905
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
WILD
0%
PENGUINS
--
WILD
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around MIN -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
PIT By 1 goal
14.8%
PIT By 2-3 goals
13.2%
MIN By 1 goal
19.2%
MIN By 2-3 goals
24.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.01
PITTSBURGH
Minnesota
2.55
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Minnesota
2
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wild
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Wild (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.5
D
Sim
Penguins (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 21, 2025
MIN @ PIT
5 - 0
Oct 30, 2025
PIT @ MIN
4 - 1
Mar 9, 2025
PIT @ MIN
3 - 1
Oct 29, 2024
MIN @ PIT
5 - 3
Feb 9, 2024
PIT @ MIN
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+61.5% more
Minnesota: 16.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.3
Takeaways (L5)
+41.0% more
Minnesota: 5.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.8
Power Play % (L5)
+36.5%
Minnesota: 46.7%
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.2%
Hits (L5)
+16.5% more
Minnesota: 22.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 19.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.0
3
MIN Score
2.6
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.6 / 10.3
20.0 / 24.0
Faceoff %
49.7 / 54.8
47.7 / 52.3
Hits
22.9 / 19.6
20.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
46.7 / 10.2
16.7 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
27.3 / 28.6
30.0 / 22.0
Takeaways
5.4 / 3.8
4.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
PIT
MIN
PIT
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
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