INDIANA
PACERSIND
35-26 | Road
118
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
29-34 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
HAWKS
100%
PACERS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.8
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.8 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -5.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
26.9%
IND By 8-14 points
24.1%
ATL By 1-7 points
17.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
7.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
121.97
INDIANA
Atlanta
116.12
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Indiana
112
INDIANA
Atlanta
118
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.8
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 238.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
ATL @ IND
124 - 129
Jan 26, 2026
IND @ ATL
116 - 132
Oct 31, 2025
ATL @ IND
128 - 108
Mar 8, 2025
IND @ ATL
118 - 120
Mar 6, 2025
IND @ ATL
118 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.6%
Indiana: 85.0%
vs
Atlanta: 73.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
Indiana: 39.9%
vs
Atlanta: 37.8%
Rebounding (L5)
+11.4% more
Atlanta: 42.3
vs
Indiana: 38.0
Steals (L5)
+8.7% more
Atlanta: 8.2
vs
Indiana: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
122.0
118
ATL Score
116.1
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.8 / 39.9
29.4 / 30.3
Assists
31.7 / 30.9
23.0 / 29.0
Blocks
5.0 / 5.0
10.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
50.6 / 50.9
46.4 / 43.6
Free Throw %
73.3 / 85.0
95.2 / 86.7
Rebounding
42.3 / 38.0
48.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.2 / 7.5
10.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 12.5
17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
IND
ATL
IND
ML
50%
52-52
48%
47-50
55%
48-40
54%
45-38
ATS
53%
55-48-1
59%
57-40
55%
48-40
54%
45-38
TTL
53%
55-48-1
54%
52-45
100%
88-0
100%
83-0
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