CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
25-38 | Road
114
MIAMI
HEATMIA
29-33 | Home
109
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
HEAT
0%
BULLS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.2
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.2 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -4.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
CHI By 1-7 points
19.8%
CHI By 8-14 points
9.1%
MIA By 1-7 points
27.4%
MIA By 8-14 points
21.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
109.28
CHICAGO
Miami
113.46
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Chicago
106
CHICAGO
Miami
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.2
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 222.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 218.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 1, 2026
CHI @ MIA
91 - 134
Jan 31, 2026
CHI @ MIA
125 - 118
Jan 29, 2026
MIA @ CHI
116 - 113
Nov 21, 2025
MIA @ CHI
143 - 107
Apr 16, 2025
MIA @ CHI
109 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+8.6% more
Miami: 7.3
vs
Chicago: 6.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
Miami: 38.3%
vs
Chicago: 33.1%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.0%
Miami: 80.0%
vs
Chicago: 78.0%
Blocks (L5)
+45.1% more
Chicago: 5.4
vs
Miami: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHI Score
109.3
114
MIA Score
113.5
109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 33.1
30.2 / 26.2
Assists
29.3 / 28.2
25.0 / 27.0
Blocks
3.0 / 5.4
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 47.4
42.3 / 45.5
Free Throw %
80.0 / 78.0
73.7 / 88.5
Rebounding
41.5 / 46.3
44.0 / 51.0
Steals
7.3 / 6.8
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 14.4
9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CHI
MIA
CHI
ML
48%
46-50
56%
54-42
59%
48-34
57%
46-35
ATS
51%
49-47
65%
62-33-1
59%
48-34
57%
46-35
TTL
59%
57-39
58%
56-40
100%
82-0
100%
81-0
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