Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Celtics LAL @ BOS

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

40-21  |  Road

101
FINAL
Sat, Mar 8 • 8:30 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

45-18  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
CELTICS
0%
LAKERS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

50.0%

Celtics Cover

50.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

LAL By 1-7 points

25.3%

LAL By 8-14 points

15.3%

BOS By 1-7 points

25.4%

BOS By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
115.93
LOS ANGELES
115.94
BOSTON
Simulated Score
112
LOS ANGELES
118
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: 0.0
D
Sim Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 231.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 22, 2026 BOS @ LAL 111 - 89
Dec 5, 2025 LAL @ BOS 105 - 126
Mar 8, 2025 LAL @ BOS 101 - 111
Jan 23, 2025 BOS @ LAL 96 - 117
Feb 1, 2024 LAL @ BOS 114 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +9.0%
Boston: 86.7% vs Los Angeles: 77.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.7%
Boston: 40.6% vs Los Angeles: 34.9%
Turnovers (L5) +23.9% more
Los Angeles: 15.8 vs Boston: 12.0
Steals (L5) +16.2% more
Los Angeles: 8.1 vs Boston: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 115.9 101
BOS Score 115.9 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.6 / 34.9 34.2 / 35.0
Assists 26.7 / 25.2 24.0 / 18.0
Blocks 5.1 / 4.8 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 47.2 47.6 / 44.8
Free Throw % 86.7 / 77.7 72.0 / 64.3
Rebounding 45.7 / 47.4 43.0 / 45.0
Steals 6.8 / 8.1 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 15.8 10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
LAL
BOS
LAL
ML
57% 61-46
61% 68-43
53% 47-41
54% 49-42
ATS
59% 61-43-3
61% 67-43-1
53% 47-41
54% 49-42
TTL
56% 60-47
61% 66-43-2
100% 88-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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