CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
52-10 | Road
118
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
14-47 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
HORNETS
100%
CAVALIERS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.3
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.3 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE -7.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-7 points
26.0%
CLE By 8-14 points
25.6%
CHA By 1-7 points
14.8%
CHA By 8-14 points
5.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
116.47
CLEVELAND
Charlotte
109.18
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Cleveland
118
CLEVELAND
Charlotte
105
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.3
D
Sim
Cavaliers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 20, 2026
CLE @ CHA
118 - 113
Jan 21, 2026
CLE @ CHA
94 - 87
Dec 22, 2025
CHA @ CLE
132 - 139
Dec 14, 2025
CHA @ CLE
119 - 111
Mar 7, 2025
CLE @ CHA
118 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+23.3% more
Cleveland: 6.8
vs
Charlotte: 5.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.0%
Cleveland: 38.6%
vs
Charlotte: 28.6%
Assists (L5)
+9.2% more
Cleveland: 26.4
vs
Charlotte: 23.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.2%
Cleveland: 80.6%
vs
Charlotte: 73.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
116.5
118
CHA Score
109.2
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.6 / 38.6
35.1 / 32.4
Assists
23.9 / 26.4
29.0 / 16.0
Blocks
4.0 / 4.1
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
41.5 / 47.6
47.8 / 42.1
Free Throw %
73.4 / 80.6
76.2 / 84.3
Rebounding
50.1 / 48.7
43.0 / 45.0
Steals
5.2 / 6.8
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
16.5 / 12.1
12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
CLE
CHA
CLE
ML
61%
60-39
60%
69-46
48%
40-44
56%
55-44
ATS
60%
59-40
67%
75-37-3
48%
40-44
56%
55-44
TTL
58%
57-42
59%
68-47
100%
84-0
100%
99-0
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