Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Mavericks MEM @ DAL

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

38-24  |  Road

122
FINAL
Fri, Mar 7 • 7:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

32-31  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Memphis)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

69.1%

Mavericks Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-7 points

27.2%

MEM By 8-14 points

23.0%

DAL By 1-7 points

18.6%

DAL By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
113.79
MEMPHIS
108.8
DALLAS
Simulated Score
118
MEMPHIS
112
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 222.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 DAL @ MEM 120 - 112
Feb 27, 2026 MEM @ DAL 124 - 105
Nov 22, 2025 MEM @ DAL 102 - 96
Nov 7, 2025 DAL @ MEM 104 - 118
Apr 18, 2025 DAL @ MEM 106 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.3% more
Memphis: 16.3 vs Dallas: 11.7
Rebounding (L5) +21.3% more
Memphis: 46.1 vs Dallas: 36.3
Free Throw % (L5) +20.8%
Memphis: 88.7% vs Dallas: 67.9%
Steals (L5) +23.1% more
Dallas: 9.1 vs Memphis: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 113.8 122
DAL Score 108.8 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 30.4 36.6 / 38.1
Assists 27.1 / 27.9 24.0 / 28.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.6 7.0 / 12.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 46.5 38.5 / 47.2
Free Throw % 67.9 / 88.7 91.7 / 87.5
Rebounding 36.3 / 46.1 45.0 / 59.0
Steals 9.1 / 7.4 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 16.3 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
9%MONEY91%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
MEM
DAL
MEM
ML
62% 63-39
57% 59-44
54% 44-37
50% 41-41
ATS
67% 68-34
63% 65-38
54% 44-37
50% 41-41
TTL
59% 60-41-1
70% 71-31-1
100% 81-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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