INDIANA
PACERSIND
35-25 | Road
118
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
28-34 | Home
124
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
HAWKS
100%
PACERS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.5
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
24.9%
IND By 8-14 points
26.5%
ATL By 1-7 points
13.0%
ATL By 8-14 points
4.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
122.91
INDIANA
Atlanta
114.43
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Indiana
118
INDIANA
Atlanta
115
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.5
D
Sim
Pacers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 237.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
ATL @ IND
124 - 129
Jan 26, 2026
IND @ ATL
116 - 132
Oct 31, 2025
ATL @ IND
128 - 108
Mar 8, 2025
IND @ ATL
118 - 120
Mar 6, 2025
IND @ ATL
118 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.3%
Indiana: 80.4%
vs
Atlanta: 71.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Indiana: 52.2%
vs
Atlanta: 49.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Indiana: 41.9%
vs
Atlanta: 40.1%
Rebounding (L5)
+16.7% more
Atlanta: 42.0
vs
Indiana: 36.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
122.9
118
ATL Score
114.4
124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.1 / 41.9
33.3 / 35.9
Assists
31.5 / 32.9
32.0 / 27.0
Blocks
5.5 / 5.0
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
49.4 / 52.2
53.2 / 48.4
Free Throw %
71.1 / 80.4
77.8 / 94.1
Rebounding
42.0 / 36.0
43.0 / 42.0
Steals
9.7 / 8.8
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 13.2
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
IND
ATL
IND
ML
50%
52-52
48%
47-50
55%
48-40
54%
45-38
ATS
53%
55-48-1
59%
57-40
55%
48-40
54%
45-38
TTL
53%
55-48-1
54%
52-45
100%
88-0
100%
83-0
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