Home / NBA Projections NBA / 76ers @ Celtics PHI @ BOS

PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

21-40  |  Road

105
FINAL
Thu, Mar 6 • 7:30 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

44-18  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
76ERS
100%
📊
CELTICS
0%
76ERS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.8
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.8 points (Boston)
76ersPHI (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

76ers Cover

12.0%

Celtics Cover

88.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -11.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

PHI By 1-7 points

8.3%

PHI By 8-14 points

2.3%

BOS By 1-7 points

20.5%

BOS By 8-14 points

27.3%

AI Model Projected Score
106.08
PHILADELPHIA
117.84
BOSTON
Simulated Score
118
PHILADELPHIA
122
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.8
D
Sim Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 223.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 2, 2026 PHI @ BOS 109 - 100
Apr 30, 2026 BOS @ PHI 93 - 106
Apr 28, 2026 PHI @ BOS 113 - 97
Apr 26, 2026 BOS @ PHI 128 - 96
Apr 24, 2026 BOS @ PHI 108 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +45.7% more
Boston: 4.7 vs Philadelphia: 3.2
Rebounding (L5) +15.0% more
Boston: 45.5 vs Philadelphia: 39.6
Free Throw % (L5) +10.9%
Boston: 83.9% vs Philadelphia: 73.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.9%
Boston: 41.2% vs Philadelphia: 33.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 106.1 105
BOS Score 117.8 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.2 / 33.2 39.6 / 38.5
Assists 24.0 / 23.7 32.0 / 29.0
Blocks 4.7 / 3.2 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 46.4 50.5 / 42.1
Free Throw % 83.9 / 73.0 92.3 / 83.3
Rebounding 45.5 / 39.6 46.0 / 45.0
Steals 6.2 / 9.0 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 12.2 11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2% Total +/-: +1.4
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
PHI
BOS
PHI
ML
57% 61-46
63% 69-40
53% 47-41
48% 45-48
ATS
59% 61-43-3
65% 71-38
53% 47-41
48% 45-48
TTL
56% 60-47
55% 60-49
100% 88-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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