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CALGARY

FLAMESCGY

29-23-9  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Mar 6 • 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

40-19-2  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Brayden Pachal
GOALTENDER

Brayden Pachal

#94 | Defense
@
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Brayden Pachal None-None -- -- --
Jake Oettinger None-None 1.87 0.929 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 1.87
-- Save % 0.929
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
100%
📊
STARS
0%
FLAMES --
STARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Dallas)
FlamesCGY (-3.5) 0 StarsDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flames Cover

39.6%

Stars Cover

60.4%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

CGY By 1 goal

14.8%

CGY By 2-3 goals

13.3%

DAL By 1 goal

19.2%

DAL By 2-3 goals

24.5%

AI Model Projected Score
2.96
CALGARY
3.49
DALLAS
Simulated Score
3
CALGARY
2
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Stars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flames Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Stars (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.5
D
Sim Flames (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 7, 2026 CGY @ DAL 3 - 4
Mar 3, 2026 DAL @ CGY 6 - 1
Nov 22, 2025 DAL @ CGY 2 - 3
Mar 27, 2025 DAL @ CGY 5 - 2
Mar 6, 2025 CGY @ DAL 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +21.1%
Dallas: 45.9% vs Calgary: 24.7%
Faceoff % (L5) +4.2%
Dallas: 53.0% vs Calgary: 48.8%
Hits (L5) +47.6% more
Calgary: 23.8 vs Dallas: 12.5
Blocked Shots (L5) +39.5% more
Calgary: 20.5 vs Dallas: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CGY Score 3.0 2
DAL Score 3.5 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 12.4 / 20.5 14.0 / 27.0
Faceoff % 53.0 / 48.8 53.3 / 46.7
Hits 12.5 / 23.8 15.0 / 21.0
Power Play % 4586.0 / 2472.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 24.1 / 26.9 27.0 / 28.0
Takeaways 3.3 / 4.0 7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
27%MONEY73%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
CGY
DAL
CGY
ML
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
ATS
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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