Home / NBA Projections NBA / Heat @ Cavaliers MIA @ CLE

MIAMI

HEATMIA

29-31  |  Road

107
FINAL
Wed, Mar 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Rocket Arena
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

51-10  |  Home

112
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
HEAT --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Cleveland)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 CavaliersCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

39.4%

Cavaliers Cover

60.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

MIA By 1-7 points

22.1%

MIA By 8-14 points

11.1%

CLE By 1-7 points

27.1%

CLE By 8-14 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
115.74
MIAMI
118.44
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
108
MIAMI
115
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.7
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 234.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 MIA @ CLE 128 - 149
Mar 25, 2026 MIA @ CLE 120 - 103
Nov 12, 2025 CLE @ MIA 130 - 116
Nov 10, 2025 CLE @ MIA 138 - 140
Apr 28, 2025 CLE @ MIA 138 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +18.8% more
Cleveland: 49.5 vs Miami: 41.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
Cleveland: 40.4% vs Miami: 37.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.0%
Cleveland: 84.5% vs Miami: 81.5%
Turnovers (L5) +14.7% more
Miami: 13.6 vs Cleveland: 11.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 115.7 107
CLE Score 118.4 112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.4 / 37.2 35.0 / 36.1
Assists 26.5 / 29.7 26.0 / 29.0
Blocks 4.2 / 4.2 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 50.3 47.1 / 43.4
Free Throw % 84.5 / 81.5 72.7 / 88.0
Rebounding 49.5 / 41.7 47.0 / 42.0
Steals 6.7 / 7.8 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 13.6 13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
MIA
CLE
MIA
ML
60% 69-46
48% 46-50
56% 55-44
59% 48-34
ATS
67% 75-37-3
51% 49-47
56% 55-44
59% 48-34
TTL
59% 68-47
59% 57-39
100% 99-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cavs 2026-27 Viewing Guide: DAZN, National TV, and Free Over-the…
yahoo 1 day, 11 hours ago
Heat's Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo: Can Miami Make It …
yahoo 1 day, 12 hours ago
Miami Heat Attempt 40 3-Pointers in a Single Half During Intrasq…
yahoo 1 day, 17 hours ago
From Diamond to Broadcast Booth: Detroit's Legacy of Great Athle…
freep 2 days, 12 hours ago
Zach Edey to Sit Out Grizzlies' Preseason Opener vs. Hawks, Team…
yahoo 2 days, 23 hours ago