PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
28-34 | Road
118
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
43-18 | Home
128
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
CELTICS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.9
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.9 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -11.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
POR By 1-7 points
8.1%
POR By 8-14 points
2.2%
BOS By 1-7 points
20.3%
BOS By 8-14 points
27.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
111.13
PORTLAND
Boston
123.03
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Portland
118
PORTLAND
Boston
124
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.9
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 234.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 26, 2026
POR @ BOS
94 - 102
Dec 28, 2025
BOS @ POR
108 - 114
Mar 23, 2025
BOS @ POR
129 - 116
Mar 5, 2025
POR @ BOS
118 - 128
Apr 7, 2024
POR @ BOS
107 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.9%
Boston: 81.7%
vs
Portland: 71.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.6%
Boston: 40.4%
vs
Portland: 34.8%
Steals (L5)
+19.1% more
Portland: 8.3
vs
Boston: 6.7
Rebounding (L5)
+15.1% more
Portland: 49.8
vs
Boston: 42.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
111.1
118
BOS Score
123.0
128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.4 / 34.8
42.6 / 40.0
Assists
24.1 / 27.1
24.0 / 19.0
Blocks
4.1 / 4.4
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 48.1
46.4 / 50.0
Free Throw %
81.7 / 71.8
88.2 / 70.6
Rebounding
42.3 / 49.8
52.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.7 / 8.3
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.8 / 16.1
10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
POR
BOS
POR
ML
57%
61-46
53%
56-49
53%
47-41
55%
49-40
ATS
59%
61-43-3
62%
65-39-1
53%
47-41
55%
49-40
TTL
56%
60-47
56%
58-46-1
100%
88-0
100%
89-0
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