Home / NBA Projections NBA / Timberwolves @ Hornets MIN @ CHA

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

34-29  |  Road

125
FINAL
Wed, Mar 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Spectrum Center
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

14-46  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
HORNETS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
206.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Minnesota)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 HornetsCHA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

55.3%

Hornets Cover

44.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-7 points

26.5%

MIN By 8-14 points

17.5%

CHA By 1-7 points

23.9%

CHA By 8-14 points

13.2%

AI Model Projected Score
104.01
MINNESOTA
102.67
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
121
MINNESOTA
114
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.3
D
Sim Timberwolves (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 206.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 CHA @ MIN 122 - 108
Nov 1, 2025 MIN @ CHA 122 - 105
Mar 5, 2025 MIN @ CHA 125 - 110
Nov 4, 2024 CHA @ MIN 93 - 114
Jan 22, 2024 CHA @ MIN 128 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +42.7% more
Minnesota: 11.1 vs Charlotte: 6.3
Assists (L5) +20.0% more
Minnesota: 28.6 vs Charlotte: 22.9
Free Throw % (L5) +11.7%
Minnesota: 82.8% vs Charlotte: 71.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.2%
Minnesota: 38.8% vs Charlotte: 28.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 104.0 125
CHA Score 102.7 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.6 / 38.8 28.6 / 42.9
Assists 22.9 / 28.6 26.0 / 27.0
Blocks 5.1 / 4.0 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.1 / 47.7 44.2 / 48.9
Free Throw % 71.1 / 82.8 77.8 / 72.7
Rebounding 46.6 / 39.6 57.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.3 / 11.1 3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 17.3 / 12.8 15.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
CHA
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
MIN
CHA
MIN
ML
61% 60-39
54% 63-53
48% 40-44
54% 50-43
ATS
60% 59-40
58% 67-49
48% 40-44
54% 50-43
TTL
58% 57-42
63% 72-43-1
100% 84-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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