Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Nuggets SAC @ DEN

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

32-28  |  Road

110
FINAL
Wed, Mar 5 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

39-22  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
📊
NUGGETS
0%
KINGS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Denver)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

45.5%

Nuggets Cover

54.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

SAC By 1-7 points

24.1%

SAC By 8-14 points

13.5%

DEN By 1-7 points

26.3%

DEN By 8-14 points

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
119.85
SACRAMENTO
120.99
DENVER
Simulated Score
118
SACRAMENTO
124
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.1
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 240.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 11, 2025 DEN @ SAC 136 - 105
Nov 22, 2025 SAC @ DEN 128 - 123
Nov 11, 2025 DEN @ SAC 122 - 108
Nov 3, 2025 SAC @ DEN 124 - 130
Apr 9, 2025 DEN @ SAC 124 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +18.0% more
Denver: 15.5 vs Sacramento: 13.1
Blocks (L5) +18.5% more
Sacramento: 4.6 vs Denver: 3.8
Free Throw % (L5) +14.2%
Sacramento: 89.2% vs Denver: 75.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Sacramento: 41.0% vs Denver: 39.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 119.9 110
DEN Score 121.0 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.1 / 41.0 34.3 / 40.7
Assists 29.2 / 28.8 28.0 / 22.0
Blocks 3.8 / 4.6 8.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 50.2 / 51.3 46.0 / 45.8
Free Throw % 75.1 / 89.2 80.0 / 78.6
Rebounding 46.0 / 43.6 46.0 / 45.0
Steals 8.0 / 7.7 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.5 / 13.1 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
SAC
DEN
SAC
ML
54% 57-48
55% 55-45
55% 47-39
61% 50-32
ATS
63% 65-38-2
54% 52-45-3
55% 47-39
61% 50-32
TTL
54% 56-48-1
58% 57-42-1
100% 86-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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