Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Pacers HOU @ IND

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

37-24  |  Road

102
FINAL
Tue, Mar 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

34-25  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
📊
PACERS
0%
ROCKETS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Indiana)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

42.9%

Pacers Cover

57.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

HOU By 1-7 points

23.3%

HOU By 8-14 points

12.5%

IND By 1-7 points

26.7%

IND By 8-14 points

18.2%

AI Model Projected Score
112.51
HOUSTON
114.3
INDIANA
Simulated Score
118
HOUSTON
124
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pacers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pacers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.8
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 226.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 2, 2026 HOU @ IND 118 - 114
Dec 29, 2025 IND @ HOU 119 - 126
Mar 4, 2025 HOU @ IND 102 - 115
Nov 20, 2024 IND @ HOU 113 - 130
Feb 6, 2024 HOU @ IND 129 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +55.2% more
Indiana: 32.3 vs Houston: 20.8
Steals (L5) +32.8% more
Indiana: 8.6 vs Houston: 6.5
Field Goal % (L5) +7.2%
Indiana: 52.7% vs Houston: 45.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Indiana: 42.6% vs Houston: 38.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 112.5 102
IND Score 114.3 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.6 / 38.7 40.5 / 30.0
Assists 32.3 / 20.8 34.0 / 22.0
Blocks 4.6 / 5.2 6.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 52.7 / 45.5 51.2 / 40.8
Free Throw % 70.6 / 75.0 100.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 49.2 35.0 / 58.0
Steals 8.6 / 6.5 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 15.6 13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
HOU
IND
HOU
ML
48% 47-50
61% 69-44
54% 45-38
59% 51-35
ATS
59% 57-40
62% 70-43
54% 45-38
59% 51-35
TTL
54% 52-45
51% 58-55
100% 83-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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