ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
27-33 | Road
132
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
38-22 | Home
130
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
HAWKS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
ATL By 1-7 points
23.5%
ATL By 8-14 points
12.7%
MEM By 1-7 points
26.7%
MEM By 8-14 points
18.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
118.1
ATLANTA
Memphis
119.76
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Atlanta
118
ATLANTA
Memphis
124
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.7
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 237.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 23, 2026
MEM @ ATL
107 - 146
Jan 21, 2026
ATL @ MEM
124 - 122
Oct 11, 2025
ATL @ MEM
122 - 116
Mar 3, 2025
ATL @ MEM
132 - 130
Dec 21, 2024
MEM @ ATL
128 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+34.3% more
Memphis: 5.8
vs
Atlanta: 4.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.2%
Memphis: 85.4%
vs
Atlanta: 76.2%
Steals (L5)
+23.5% more
Atlanta: 8.4
vs
Memphis: 6.4
Turnovers (L5)
+11.0% more
Atlanta: 16.6
vs
Memphis: 14.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
118.1
132
MEM Score
119.8
130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.9 / 37.7
39.4 / 46.4
Assists
29.0 / 28.6
36.0 / 35.0
Blocks
5.8 / 4.4
3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
48.9 / 48.3
50.5 / 57.3
Free Throw %
85.4 / 76.2
92.0 / 52.9
Rebounding
45.6 / 43.2
43.0 / 32.0
Steals
6.4 / 8.4
7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 16.6
20.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
ATL
MEM
ATL
ML
57%
59-44
50%
52-52
50%
41-41
55%
48-40
ATS
63%
65-38
53%
55-48-1
50%
41-41
55%
48-40
TTL
70%
71-31-1
53%
55-48-1
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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