SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
31-28 | Road
122
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
32-29 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
MAVERICKS
100%
KINGS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
SAC By 1-7 points
26.2%
SAC By 8-14 points
17.0%
DAL By 1-7 points
24.2%
DAL By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento
114.94
SACRAMENTO
Dallas
113.92
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Sacramento
118
SACRAMENTO
Dallas
122
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Kings
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Kings (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Mavericks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 228.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
SAC @ DAL
130 - 121
Jan 6, 2026
DAL @ SAC
100 - 98
Dec 27, 2025
DAL @ SAC
107 - 113
Apr 16, 2025
DAL @ SAC
120 - 106
Mar 3, 2025
SAC @ DAL
122 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+26.8% more
Sacramento: 16.2
vs
Dallas: 11.9
Rebounding (L5)
+13.4% more
Sacramento: 47.0
vs
Dallas: 40.7
Steals (L5)
+12.8% more
Sacramento: 9.5
vs
Dallas: 8.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.7%
Sacramento: 50.9%
vs
Dallas: 44.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
114.9
122
DAL Score
113.9
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 38.0
26.9 / 47.1
Assists
24.5 / 26.2
28.0 / 34.0
Blocks
4.9 / 4.9
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 50.9
45.5 / 52.2
Free Throw %
79.1 / 83.9
87.5 / 100.0
Rebounding
40.7 / 47.0
37.0 / 37.0
Steals
8.3 / 9.5
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 16.2
14.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
DAL
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
SAC
DAL
SAC
ML
62%
63-39
55%
55-45
54%
44-37
61%
50-32
ATS
67%
68-34
54%
52-45-3
54%
44-37
61%
50-32
TTL
59%
60-41-1
58%
57-42-1
100%
81-0
100%
82-0
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