OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
30-25-4 | Road
4
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
38-14-8 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 3.77 | 0.902 | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 3.70 | 0.892 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.77
GAA
Ldr 3.70
0.902 Ldr
Save %
0.892
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
100%
CAPITALS
0%
SENATORS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
OTT By 1 goal
17.3%
OTT By 2-3 goals
18.3%
WSH By 1 goal
17.6%
WSH By 2-3 goals
19.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
3.48
OTTAWA
Washington
3.51
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 18, 2026
OTT @ WSH
1 - 4
Jan 1, 2026
WSH @ OTT
3 - 4
Oct 25, 2025
OTT @ WSH
7 - 1
Mar 3, 2025
OTT @ WSH
4 - 5
Jan 30, 2025
WSH @ OTT
4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+34.3% more
Ottawa: 25.0
vs
Washington: 16.5
Blocked Shots (L5)
+28.7% more
Ottawa: 15.5
vs
Washington: 11.1
Shots on Goal (L5)
+15.7% more
Ottawa: 29.0
vs
Washington: 24.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
3.5
4
WSH Score
3.5
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.1 / 15.5
27.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
51.2 / 52.5
42.9 / 57.1
Hits
16.5 / 25.0
10.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
21.3 / 20.9
25.0 / 28.6
Shots on Goal
24.5 / 29.0
41.0 / 37.0
Takeaways
3.9 / 4.1
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
OTT
WSH
OTT
ML
100%
3-0
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
100%
3-0
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
TTL
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
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