DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
39-21 | Road
103
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
42-18 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
CELTICS
0%
NUGGETS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.7
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.7 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -4.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
DEN By 1-7 points
19.0%
DEN By 8-14 points
8.3%
BOS By 1-7 points
27.3%
BOS By 8-14 points
22.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
118.91
DENVER
Boston
123.65
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Denver
118
DENVER
Boston
122
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.7
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 242.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
BOS @ DEN
84 - 103
Jan 7, 2026
DEN @ BOS
114 - 110
Mar 2, 2025
DEN @ BOS
103 - 110
Jan 7, 2025
BOS @ DEN
118 - 106
Oct 6, 2024
DEN @ BOS
104 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.8%
Boston: 81.8%
vs
Denver: 78.0%
Assists (L5)
+23.7% more
Denver: 30.3
vs
Boston: 23.1
Turnovers (L5)
+20.7% more
Denver: 17.3
vs
Boston: 13.7
Rebounding (L5)
+18.2% more
Denver: 50.0
vs
Boston: 40.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
118.9
103
BOS Score
123.7
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.1 / 41.6
41.2 / 34.3
Assists
23.1 / 30.3
26.0 / 27.0
Blocks
4.1 / 4.6
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.6 / 51.4
47.4 / 47.7
Free Throw %
81.8 / 78.0
81.5 / 69.2
Rebounding
40.9 / 50.0
45.0 / 38.0
Steals
6.6 / 6.6
7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 17.3
14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
DEN
BOS
DEN
ML
57%
61-46
54%
57-48
53%
47-41
55%
47-39
ATS
59%
61-43-3
63%
65-38-2
53%
47-41
55%
47-39
TTL
56%
60-47
54%
56-48-1
100%
88-0
100%
86-0
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