CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
24-36 | Road
112
INDIANA
PACERSIND
33-25 | Home
127
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
PACERS
0%
BULLS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
CHI By 1-7 points
22.7%
CHI By 8-14 points
11.8%
IND By 1-7 points
27.0%
IND By 8-14 points
19.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
116.04
CHICAGO
Indiana
118.3
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Chicago
118
CHICAGO
Indiana
112
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulls
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.3
D
Sim
Bulls (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 234.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
IND @ CHI
145 - 126
Jan 28, 2026
CHI @ IND
110 - 113
Dec 5, 2025
IND @ CHI
120 - 105
Nov 29, 2025
CHI @ IND
101 - 103
Mar 10, 2025
IND @ CHI
103 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+25.1% more
Indiana: 4.8
vs
Chicago: 3.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.8%
Indiana: 42.2%
vs
Chicago: 35.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.8%
Indiana: 51.4%
vs
Chicago: 45.6%
Rebounding (L5)
+16.1% more
Chicago: 43.7
vs
Indiana: 36.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHI Score
116.0
112
IND Score
118.3
127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.2 / 35.4
43.2 / 30.3
Assists
31.5 / 30.9
34.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.8 / 3.9
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
51.4 / 45.6
55.2 / 50.0
Free Throw %
72.6 / 81.2
66.7 / 77.8
Rebounding
36.7 / 43.7
36.0 / 42.0
Steals
9.4 / 9.7
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 15.0
12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
Advantage
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
CHI
IND
CHI
ML
48%
47-50
56%
54-42
54%
45-38
57%
46-35
ATS
59%
57-40
65%
62-33-1
54%
45-38
57%
46-35
TTL
54%
52-45
58%
56-40
100%
83-0
100%
81-0
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