Home / NHL Projections NHL / Blues @ Stars STL @ DAL

ST. LOUIS

BLUESSTL

29-26-6  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Mar 2 • 6:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

38-19-2  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Jordan Binnington
GOALTENDER

Jordan Binnington

#50 | Goaltender
@
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jordan Binnington None-None 5.27 0.750 --
Jake Oettinger None-None 3.00 0.929 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.27 GAA Ldr 3.00
0.750 Save % Ldr 0.929
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
BLUES
100%
📊
STARS
0%
BLUES --
STARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Dallas)
BluesSTL (-3.5) 0 StarsDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blues Cover

23.3%

Stars Cover

76.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

STL By 1 goal

9.4%

STL By 2-3 goals

6.3%

DAL By 1 goal

19.2%

DAL By 2-3 goals

33.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3
ST. LOUIS
4.46
DALLAS
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
2
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Stars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blues Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Stars (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.5
D
Sim Blues (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 2, 2026 STL @ DAL 4 - 0
Feb 4, 2026 STL @ DAL 4 - 5
Jan 27, 2026 DAL @ STL 4 - 3
Jan 23, 2026 STL @ DAL 2 - 3
Oct 18, 2025 DAL @ STL 1 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +25.4%
Dallas: 38.2% vs St. Louis: 12.8%
Hits (L5) +48.5% more
St. Louis: 26.2 vs Dallas: 13.5
Takeaways (L5) +28.4% more
St. Louis: 4.9 vs Dallas: 3.5
Faceoff % (L5) +9.2%
St. Louis: 57.7% vs Dallas: 48.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.0 3
DAL Score 4.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.7 / 16.0 14.0 / 8.0
Faceoff % 48.5 / 57.7 56.5 / 43.5
Hits 13.5 / 26.2 11.0 / 21.0
Power Play % 38.2 / 12.8 100.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal 28.1 / 27.4 21.0 / 42.0
Takeaways 3.5 / 4.9 2.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
5%MONEY95%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
96%MONEY4%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
STL
DAL
STL
ML
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 3-0
50% 1-1-1
33% 1-2
50% 1-1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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