SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
30-28 | Road
113
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
37-22 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
KINGS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.9
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.9 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -6.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
SAC By 1-7 points
15.5%
SAC By 8-14 points
5.9%
HOU By 1-7 points
26.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
25.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento
108.38
SACRAMENTO
Houston
115.28
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Sacramento
121
SACRAMENTO
Houston
115
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.9
D
Sim
Kings (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 223.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
SAC @ HOU
97 - 128
Jan 11, 2026
HOU @ SAC
98 - 111
Dec 21, 2025
HOU @ SAC
124 - 125
Dec 3, 2025
SAC @ HOU
95 - 121
Mar 1, 2025
SAC @ HOU
113 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+13.0% more
Houston: 5.5
vs
Sacramento: 4.9
Rebounding (L5)
+10.5% more
Houston: 52.4
vs
Sacramento: 47.5
Steals (L5)
+33.9% more
Sacramento: 7.7
vs
Houston: 5.1
Assists (L5)
+20.7% more
Sacramento: 28.8
vs
Houston: 22.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
108.4
113
HOU Score
115.3
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 40.9
37.1 / 32.1
Assists
22.8 / 28.8
18.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.5 / 4.9
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 51.1
43.0 / 50.6
Free Throw %
72.1 / 87.7
69.6 / 76.2
Rebounding
52.4 / 47.5
43.0 / 46.0
Steals
5.1 / 7.7
7.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
15.1 / 17.3
16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SAC
HOU
SAC
ML
61%
69-44
55%
55-45
59%
51-35
61%
50-32
ATS
62%
70-43
54%
52-45-3
59%
51-35
61%
50-32
TTL
51%
58-55
58%
57-42-1
100%
86-0
100%
82-0
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