DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
38-21 | Road
134
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
33-26 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
PISTONS
100%
NUGGETS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
252.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.4
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.4 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -7.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
25.9%
DEN By 8-14 points
25.8%
DET By 1-7 points
14.6%
DET By 8-14 points
5.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
129.84
DENVER
Detroit
122.4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Denver
118
DENVER
Detroit
105
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.4
D
Sim
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 252.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 3, 2026
DEN @ DET
121 - 124
Jan 27, 2026
DET @ DEN
109 - 107
Feb 28, 2025
DEN @ DET
134 - 119
Dec 28, 2024
DET @ DEN
121 - 134
Jan 7, 2024
DET @ DEN
114 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.2%
Denver: 79.9%
vs
Detroit: 70.7%
Blocks (L5)
+85.8% more
Detroit: 5.5
vs
Denver: 3.0
Steals (L5)
+46.3% more
Detroit: 10.7
vs
Denver: 7.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Detroit: 38.3%
vs
Denver: 34.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
129.8
134
DET Score
122.4
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 34.9
32.4 / 54.8
Assists
29.3 / 31.4
32.0 / 28.0
Blocks
5.5 / 3.0
3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
51.3 / 49.1
45.5 / 56.0
Free Throw %
70.7 / 79.9
73.9 / 74.2
Rebounding
47.6 / 50.0
42.0 / 50.0
Steals
10.7 / 7.3
15.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
15.4 / 15.9
11.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
DEN
DET
DEN
ML
55%
64-53
54%
57-48
49%
47-49
55%
47-39
ATS
53%
60-54-3
63%
65-38-2
49%
47-49
55%
47-39
TTL
60%
70-46-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
96-0
100%
86-0
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