CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
48-10 | Road
123
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
42-17 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
CELTICS
0%
CAVALIERS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
246.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
CLE By 1-7 points
21.6%
CLE By 8-14 points
10.6%
BOS By 1-7 points
27.2%
BOS By 8-14 points
20.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
121.69
CLEVELAND
Boston
124.72
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Cleveland
112
CLEVELAND
Boston
118
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 246.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
BOS @ CLE
109 - 98
Nov 30, 2025
BOS @ CLE
117 - 115
Oct 29, 2025
CLE @ BOS
105 - 125
Oct 12, 2025
CLE @ BOS
107 - 138
Feb 28, 2025
CLE @ BOS
123 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.9%
Boston: 84.4%
vs
Cleveland: 76.5%
Rebounding (L5)
+17.8% more
Cleveland: 50.2
vs
Boston: 41.3
Blocks (L5)
+17.2% more
Cleveland: 4.4
vs
Boston: 3.7
Assists (L5)
+10.1% more
Cleveland: 27.4
vs
Boston: 24.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
121.7
123
BOS Score
124.7
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 43.8
43.6 / 43.6
Assists
24.6 / 27.4
20.0 / 23.0
Blocks
3.7 / 4.4
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 52.1
48.3 / 47.9
Free Throw %
84.4 / 76.5
76.5 / 84.2
Rebounding
41.3 / 50.2
40.0 / 44.0
Steals
7.4 / 7.2
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
15.0 / 13.9
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CLE
BOS
CLE
ML
57%
61-46
60%
69-46
53%
47-41
56%
55-44
ATS
59%
61-43-3
67%
75-37-3
53%
47-41
56%
55-44
TTL
56%
60-47
59%
68-47
100%
88-0
100%
99-0
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