INDIANA
PACERSIND
33-24 | Road
120
MIAMI
HEATMIA
27-30 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
HEAT
100%
PACERS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
27.2%
IND By 8-14 points
23.0%
MIA By 1-7 points
18.6%
MIA By 8-14 points
8.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
113.62
INDIANA
Miami
108.67
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Indiana
118
INDIANA
Miami
122
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 222.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
MIA @ IND
118 - 135
Jan 10, 2026
MIA @ IND
99 - 123
Dec 27, 2025
IND @ MIA
116 - 142
Feb 28, 2025
IND @ MIA
120 - 125
Jan 2, 2025
IND @ MIA
128 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+46.4% more
Indiana: 5.8
vs
Miami: 3.1
Steals (L5)
+16.5% more
Indiana: 9.2
vs
Miami: 7.7
Assists (L5)
+10.0% more
Indiana: 29.7
vs
Miami: 26.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Indiana: 50.5%
vs
Miami: 47.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
113.6
120
MIA Score
108.7
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 36.4
53.1 / 53.8
Assists
26.7 / 29.7
34.0 / 35.0
Blocks
3.1 / 5.8
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 50.5
57.1 / 53.4
Free Throw %
83.5 / 77.6
92.3 / 62.5
Rebounding
41.7 / 40.0
39.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.7 / 9.2
7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
15.3 / 15.9
15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
IND
MIA
IND
ML
48%
46-50
48%
47-50
59%
48-34
54%
45-38
ATS
51%
49-47
59%
57-40
59%
48-34
54%
45-38
TTL
59%
57-39
54%
52-45
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
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