Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hornets @ Mavericks CHA @ DAL

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

14-43  |  Road

96
FINAL
Thu, Feb 27 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

31-28  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
HORNETS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
205.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.1
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.1 points (Dallas)
HornetsCHA (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

30.6%

Mavericks Cover

69.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -5.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

CHA By 1-7 points

18.5%

CHA By 8-14 points

7.9%

DAL By 1-7 points

27.2%

DAL By 8-14 points

23.1%

AI Model Projected Score
100.33
CHARLOTTE
105.39
DALLAS
Simulated Score
107
CHARLOTTE
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.1
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 205.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 DAL @ CHA 90 - 117
Jan 29, 2026 CHA @ DAL 123 - 121
Oct 11, 2025 CHA @ DAL 120 - 116
Feb 27, 2025 CHA @ DAL 96 - 103
Jan 20, 2025 DAL @ CHA 105 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +22.0% more
Dallas: 6.8 vs Charlotte: 5.6
Assists (L5) +17.0% more
Dallas: 24.8 vs Charlotte: 21.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.5%
Dallas: 39.1% vs Charlotte: 27.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
Dallas: 43.3% vs Charlotte: 37.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHA Score 100.3 96
DAL Score 105.4 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.1 / 27.6 30.6 / 25.9
Assists 24.8 / 21.2 23.0 / 25.0
Blocks 6.8 / 5.6 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 37.5 41.2 / 40.8
Free Throw % 80.4 / 80.4 75.0 / 69.2
Rebounding 42.8 / 43.5 48.0 / 56.0
Steals 7.4 / 9.7 12.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 19.1 9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA Advantage
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
CHA
DAL
CHA
ML
62% 63-39
61% 60-39
54% 44-37
48% 40-44
ATS
67% 68-34
60% 59-40
54% 44-37
48% 40-44
TTL
59% 60-41-1
58% 57-42
100% 81-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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