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BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

42-16  |  Road

97
FINAL
Wed, Feb 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

32-26  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
PISTONS
100%
CELTICS --
PISTONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
248.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.2 points (Boston)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 PistonsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

90.6%

Pistons Cover

9.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -13.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-7 points

18.3%

BOS By 8-14 points

26.8%

DET By 1-7 points

6.6%

DET By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
130.74
BOSTON
117.57
DETROIT
Simulated Score
97
BOSTON
128
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pistons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.2
D
Sim Pistons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 248.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 19, 2026 BOS @ DET 103 - 104
Dec 15, 2025 DET @ BOS 112 - 105
Nov 26, 2025 DET @ BOS 114 - 117
Oct 26, 2025 BOS @ DET 113 - 119
Feb 26, 2025 BOS @ DET 97 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +16.6%
Boston: 93.3% vs Detroit: 76.7%
Steals (L5) +46.6% more
Detroit: 9.6 vs Boston: 6.6
Turnovers (L5) +23.4% more
Detroit: 16.1 vs Boston: 13.0
Blocks (L5) +14.4% more
Detroit: 5.7 vs Boston: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 130.7 97
DET Score 117.6 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 36.0 39.4 / 42.9
Assists 29.4 / 26.4 29.0 / 21.0
Blocks 5.7 / 5.0 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 50.5 / 48.1 52.8 / 41.3
Free Throw % 76.7 / 93.3 58.8 / 66.7
Rebounding 45.9 / 46.0 51.0 / 32.0
Steals 9.6 / 6.6 13.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 16.1 / 13.0 14.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
DET
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
BOS
DET
BOS
ML
55% 64-53
57% 61-46
49% 47-49
53% 47-41
ATS
53% 60-54-3
59% 61-43-3
49% 47-49
53% 47-41
TTL
60% 70-46-1
56% 60-47
100% 96-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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