TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
18-40 | Road
91
INDIANA
PACERSIND
32-24 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
0%
PACERS
100%
RAPTORS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOR -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-7 points
26.3%
TOR By 8-14 points
17.2%
IND By 1-7 points
24.1%
IND By 8-14 points
13.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
114.85
TORONTO
Indiana
113.68
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Toronto
112
TORONTO
Indiana
120
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Raptors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Raptors (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.2
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 228.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 8, 2026
IND @ TOR
104 - 122
Jan 14, 2026
TOR @ IND
115 - 101
Nov 26, 2025
IND @ TOR
95 - 97
Nov 15, 2025
TOR @ IND
129 - 111
Feb 26, 2025
TOR @ IND
91 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+9.5% more
Toronto: 43.7
vs
Indiana: 39.5
Turnovers (L5)
+8.5% more
Toronto: 15.1
vs
Indiana: 13.8
Blocks (L5)
+122.5% more
Indiana: 5.1
vs
Toronto: 2.3
Assists (L5)
+13.6% more
Indiana: 30.5
vs
Toronto: 26.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
114.9
91
IND Score
113.7
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.4 / 33.5
40.5 / 22.2
Assists
30.5 / 26.9
28.0 / 23.0
Blocks
5.1 / 2.3
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.2 / 47.1
53.1 / 42.5
Free Throw %
85.1 / 74.4
62.5 / 68.8
Rebounding
39.5 / 43.7
41.0 / 40.0
Steals
8.8 / 8.1
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.8 / 15.1
20.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
TOR
IND
TOR
ML
48%
47-50
55%
57-47
54%
45-38
55%
48-39
ATS
59%
57-40
61%
62-40-2
54%
45-38
55%
48-39
TTL
54%
52-45
60%
62-42
100%
83-0
100%
87-0
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