ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
27-31 | Road
109
MIAMI
HEATMIA
26-30 | Home
131
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
HEAT
100%
HAWKS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
26.8%
ATL By 8-14 points
18.4%
MIA By 1-7 points
23.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
12.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
110.97
ATLANTA
Miami
109.07
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Atlanta
103
ATLANTA
Miami
108
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.9
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
ATL @ MIA
117 - 143
Feb 20, 2026
MIA @ ATL
128 - 97
Feb 3, 2026
ATL @ MIA
127 - 115
Dec 26, 2025
MIA @ ATL
126 - 111
Oct 13, 2025
MIA @ ATL
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+34.2% more
Atlanta: 9.9
vs
Miami: 6.5
Assists (L5)
+30.4% more
Atlanta: 29.6
vs
Miami: 20.6
Blocks (L5)
+20.0% more
Atlanta: 4.5
vs
Miami: 3.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.0%
Atlanta: 34.7%
vs
Miami: 26.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
111.0
109
MIA Score
109.1
131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.7 / 34.7
54.8 / 37.5
Assists
20.6 / 29.6
39.0 / 29.0
Blocks
3.6 / 4.5
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
41.6 / 46.7
59.2 / 50.6
Free Throw %
84.3 / 73.2
81.8 / 78.9
Rebounding
45.1 / 46.1
35.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.5 / 9.9
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.4 / 14.5
17.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ATL
MIA
ATL
ML
48%
46-50
50%
52-52
59%
48-34
55%
48-40
ATS
51%
49-47
53%
55-48-1
59%
48-34
55%
48-40
TTL
59%
57-39
53%
55-48-1
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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