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BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

41-16  |  Road

111
FINAL
Tue, Feb 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

18-39  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
RAPTORS
100%
CELTICS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Boston)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

62.6%

Raptors Cover

37.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-7 points

27.3%

BOS By 8-14 points

20.4%

TOR By 1-7 points

21.3%

TOR By 8-14 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
115.63
BOSTON
112.43
TORONTO
Simulated Score
112
BOSTON
104
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.2
D
Sim Celtics (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 228.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 TOR @ BOS 101 - 115
Jan 9, 2026 TOR @ BOS 117 - 125
Dec 20, 2025 BOS @ TOR 112 - 96
Dec 7, 2025 BOS @ TOR 121 - 113
Oct 15, 2025 TOR @ BOS 108 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +46.2% more
Boston: 5.5 vs Toronto: 3.0
Free Throw % (L5) +15.8%
Boston: 89.9% vs Toronto: 74.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Boston: 48.5% vs Toronto: 45.4%
Steals (L5) +32.8% more
Toronto: 7.1 vs Boston: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 115.6 111
TOR Score 112.4 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.7 / 39.2 15.2 / 29.4
Assists 26.8 / 27.7 27.0 / 24.0
Blocks 3.0 / 5.5 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 48.5 50.6 / 47.3
Free Throw % 74.1 / 89.9 75.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 45.5 / 49.5 40.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.1 / 5.3 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 12.1 17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BOS
TOR
BOS
ML
55% 57-47
57% 61-46
55% 48-39
53% 47-41
ATS
61% 62-40-2
59% 61-43-3
55% 48-39
53% 47-41
TTL
60% 62-42
56% 60-47
100% 87-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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