CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
27-21-8 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
38-11-8 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Brayden Pachal
#94 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Pachal | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 3.24 | 0.880 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.24
--
Save %
0.880
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
100%
CAPITALS
0%
FLAMES
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
CGY By 1 goal
8.5%
CGY By 2-3 goals
5.4%
WSH By 1 goal
18.8%
WSH By 2-3 goals
35.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Calgary
2.59
CALGARY
Washington
4.21
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Calgary
3
CALGARY
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 9, 2026
CGY @ WSH
3 - 7
Jan 23, 2026
WSH @ CGY
3 - 1
Feb 25, 2025
CGY @ WSH
3 - 1
Jan 28, 2025
WSH @ CGY
3 - 1
Mar 18, 2024
WSH @ CGY
5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+36.4%
Washington: 55.4%
vs
Calgary: 19.0%
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.4%
Washington: 49.8%
vs
Calgary: 47.4%
Hits (L5)
+23.2% more
Calgary: 21.2
vs
Washington: 16.3
Blocked Shots (L5)
+19.6% more
Calgary: 17.9
vs
Washington: 14.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CGY Score
2.6
3
WSH Score
4.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.4 / 17.9
15.0 / 29.0
Faceoff %
49.8 / 47.4
55.2 / 44.8
Hits
16.3 / 21.2
20.0 / 27.0
Power Play %
55.4 / 19.0
33.3 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
31.9 / 31.6
27.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
3.5 / 3.9
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CGY
WSH
CGY
ML
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
ATS
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
TTL
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
0%
0-3
Contextual Game News
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