Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Pacers DEN @ IND

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

37-20  |  Road

125
FINAL
Mon, Feb 24 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

32-23  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
📊
PACERS
100%
NUGGETS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
248.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Denver)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

69.1%

Pacers Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-7 points

27.2%

DEN By 8-14 points

23.0%

IND By 1-7 points

18.6%

IND By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
126.64
DENVER
121.64
INDIANA
Simulated Score
115
DENVER
103
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Nuggets (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 248.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 218.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 3, 2025 DEN @ IND 135 - 120
Nov 8, 2025 IND @ DEN 100 - 117
Apr 6, 2025 IND @ DEN 125 - 120
Feb 24, 2025 DEN @ IND 125 - 116
Jan 23, 2024 DEN @ IND 114 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +26.7% more
Denver: 16.0 vs Indiana: 11.7
Rebounding (L5) +10.2% more
Denver: 48.3 vs Indiana: 43.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
Denver: 39.7% vs Indiana: 35.3%
Blocks (L5) +98.4% more
Indiana: 6.2 vs Denver: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 126.6 125
IND Score 121.6 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 39.7 32.6 / 38.1
Assists 31.3 / 30.2 29.0 / 39.0
Blocks 6.2 / 3.1 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.2 / 48.8 47.1 / 56.4
Free Throw % 86.9 / 79.1 81.5 / 78.6
Rebounding 43.3 / 48.3 32.0 / 46.0
Steals 7.6 / 6.5 11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 16.0 18.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
DEN
IND
DEN
ML
48% 47-50
54% 57-48
54% 45-38
55% 47-39
ATS
59% 57-40
63% 65-38-2
54% 45-38
55% 47-39
TTL
54% 52-45
54% 56-48-1
100% 83-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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