MIAMI
HEATMIA
26-29 | Road
86
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
26-31 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
HAWKS
0%
HEAT
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
MIA By 1-7 points
25.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
15.3%
ATL By 1-7 points
25.4%
ATL By 8-14 points
15.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
111.47
MIAMI
Atlanta
111.5
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Miami
112
MIAMI
Atlanta
108
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: 0.0
D
Sim
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
ATL @ MIA
117 - 143
Feb 20, 2026
MIA @ ATL
128 - 97
Feb 3, 2026
ATL @ MIA
127 - 115
Dec 26, 2025
MIA @ ATL
126 - 111
Oct 13, 2025
MIA @ ATL
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+68.9% more
Atlanta: 5.8
vs
Miami: 3.4
Steals (L5)
+44.8% more
Atlanta: 8.3
vs
Miami: 5.7
Assists (L5)
+27.9% more
Atlanta: 29.9
vs
Miami: 23.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.0%
Atlanta: 39.2%
vs
Miami: 31.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
111.5
86
ATL Score
111.5
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.2 / 31.2
25.7 / 17.5
Assists
29.9 / 23.4
29.0 / 15.0
Blocks
5.8 / 3.4
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 46.3
45.5 / 32.1
Free Throw %
72.3 / 80.1
75.0 / 92.6
Rebounding
44.2 / 45.1
50.0 / 45.0
Steals
8.3 / 5.7
13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 12.7
18.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIA
ATL
MIA
ML
50%
52-52
48%
46-50
55%
48-40
59%
48-34
ATS
53%
55-48-1
51%
49-47
55%
48-40
59%
48-34
TTL
53%
55-48-1
59%
57-39
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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