PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
27-29 | Road
109
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
17-39 | Home
127
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
RAPTORS
0%
SUNS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
PHX By 1-7 points
25.1%
PHX By 8-14 points
14.8%
TOR By 1-7 points
25.6%
TOR By 8-14 points
15.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
108.42
PHOENIX
Toronto
108.71
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Phoenix
107
PHOENIX
Toronto
112
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Raptors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Raptors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.3
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 217.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 22, 2026
TOR @ PHX
98 - 120
Mar 13, 2026
PHX @ TOR
115 - 122
Mar 17, 2025
TOR @ PHX
89 - 129
Feb 23, 2025
PHX @ TOR
109 - 127
Mar 7, 2024
TOR @ PHX
113 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+14.6% more
Toronto: 7.6
vs
Phoenix: 6.7
Blocks (L5)
+19.6% more
Phoenix: 4.9
vs
Toronto: 3.9
Assists (L5)
+11.2% more
Phoenix: 28.4
vs
Toronto: 25.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.3%
Phoenix: 85.4%
vs
Toronto: 76.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
108.4
109
TOR Score
108.7
127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 34.9
57.1 / 25.0
Assists
25.2 / 28.4
30.0 / 22.0
Blocks
3.9 / 4.9
1.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
43.6 / 47.3
48.9 / 50.6
Free Throw %
76.1 / 85.4
70.0 / 72.7
Rebounding
43.8 / 44.0
49.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.6 / 6.7
6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 13.8
14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
PHX
TOR
PHX
ML
55%
57-47
57%
60-45
55%
48-39
51%
45-43
ATS
61%
62-40-2
58%
59-43-3
55%
48-39
51%
45-43
TTL
60%
62-42
59%
61-42-2
100%
87-0
100%
88-0
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