DETROIT
PISTONSDET
30-26 | Road
148
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
26-30 | Home
143
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
HAWKS
100%
PISTONS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-7 points
26.5%
DET By 8-14 points
17.6%
ATL By 1-7 points
23.8%
ATL By 8-14 points
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
119.72
DETROIT
Atlanta
118.29
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Detroit
112
DETROIT
Atlanta
118
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pistons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pistons (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
ATL @ DET
130 - 129
Dec 12, 2025
ATL @ DET
115 - 142
Dec 1, 2025
ATL @ DET
98 - 99
Nov 18, 2025
DET @ ATL
120 - 112
Feb 23, 2025
DET @ ATL
148 - 143
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+13.5% more
Detroit: 14.7
vs
Atlanta: 12.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.0%
Detroit: 84.4%
vs
Atlanta: 72.4%
Rebounding (L5)
+8.0% more
Detroit: 50.2
vs
Atlanta: 46.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Detroit: 49.8%
vs
Atlanta: 45.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
119.7
148
ATL Score
118.3
143
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 36.6
46.7 / 50.0
Assists
29.8 / 30.1
30.0 / 39.0
Blocks
5.7 / 5.1
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 49.8
50.0 / 59.1
Free Throw %
72.4 / 84.4
72.2 / 72.0
Rebounding
46.2 / 50.2
40.0 / 37.0
Steals
8.5 / 8.9
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 14.7
13.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
DET
ATL
DET
ML
50%
52-52
55%
64-53
55%
48-40
49%
47-49
ATS
53%
55-48-1
53%
60-54-3
55%
48-40
49%
47-49
TTL
53%
55-48-1
60%
70-46-1
100%
88-0
100%
96-0
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